Monday, July 19, 2010

Gold needs an Octopus Paul


For the past couple of years, gold has been acting so unpredictable that investors definitely wanted to have a soothsayer to predict the fate of gold in the coming days. The situation is same now also. Nobody is certain about the ups and downs of the yellow metal.

Now, any investor would love to have an opinion from the World Cup famous octopus Paul of Germany before one puts his/her money on the yellow metal. Octopus Paul has a clean record of predicting the results of all Germany matches and the final of the World Cup Football. Paul has becomes such a famous phenomenon of the World Cup that even Spain, the Cup winner, offered a citizenship to the creature.

So, who wouldn’t want a perfect soothsayer like Paul before investing in gold. The reason for gold’s unpredictability now is that the metal is witnessing many upheavals in the world economy. After the Greece economic tragedy, the gold prices zoomed to record levels. Before that, India’s Reserve Bank bought 200 tonnes of the yellow metal, which resulted in the rise of prices in November 2009. Again, the gold ETF manipulation reports in the US also hit the gold prices.

Now, the Portugal economy’s bad phase is helping gold to rise. But, lack of demand in India and reports that central banks are pawning their gold with BIS dampened the metal a bit.

However, market analysts have been consistent in saying that there is only one way gold prices can move that is up. However, India is a big worry for bullion markets as the Indian buyers are shying away from jewellery shops and bullion market due to the high prices of the metal. Even in China, people are not enthusiastic about buying gold now. So, the dull India and China markets are dragging the gold market now.

Gold eased a touch in Europe on Friday, under pressure from lacklustre investment and jewellary demand over the seasonally soft summer months, with a further outflow from the world’s largest gold ETF undermining sentiment.

Prices remained rangebound, however, supported above $1,200 an ounce by a retreat in risk appetite which pressured equities and the dollar. The precious metal has remained in a narrow $1,195-1,215 range for much of the week, lacking clear direction from other markets and the wider macroeconomic environment.

The market is awaiting clearer signals from the equity, debt and foreign exchange markets, and fresh seasonal demand from India, where key gold-buying festivals will take place next month, for impetus.

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